A longtime D.C. political operative gives us a quick rundown on a new Ohio poll that on the surface would appear to favor Barack Obama. Not so fast says Insider – this poll is apparently GREAT news for Mitt Romney and has the Obama team growing increasingly concerned. Here’s why.
Insider: Go look up the latest Public Policy poll. It’s on Ohio. Obama has to have Ohio. Critical. Biden has been sent out there about four times this past week alone. Romney has just started the ad blitz in that state so this poll won’t even reflect that push. I am going to use this poll to show how we read this stuff. How somebody like me, really pulls the facts from the bullshit of those polls. Their side is doing this. Our side is doing this. They put out a headline, we ignore that headline. We know the facts. And they know we know the facts. From there the messaging is formed. If we don’t like the perception we spend millions changing that perception. They are doing the same thing. Difference is, they don’t have me.
So back to the PPP data. Now Public Policy is left leaning. Keep that in mind. And that poll comes out right after the DNC. That was no accident. It’s an attempt to form the perception I just told you about. Try and counter the internal data. There’s the kicker here. Obama spent money in Ohio. They ran at least three internals over the last few weeks that I know of. Each time they came back showing Ohio leaning for Romney. Tight but leaning. And that’s after the Obama campaign has spent a ton of money there. And the unions working double time to help out Obama as well. Obama’s #s are stuck in Ohio. They won’t budge. Romney’s #s keep creeping up. So the campaign is sh-tting itself trying to figure out what to do. Like I said, Obama has to have Ohio. And Oh isn’t the state that jumped over to Romney I told you about before. That state is looking to be wrapped up for Romney. An early night earthquake on Election Night. Ohio is a major front for the campaign war. Romney has Obama spending big $$$$ that they didn’t think they would have to. And while Obama’s donations are leveling off or dropping off, Romney’s donations keep pouring in.
So the PPP headline for Ohio is this:
Obama’s lead up to 5 in Ohio
I get the poll sent my way. I laugh it off. You see, I also seen the Obama internals from two weeks ago. I didn’t get my hands on the last one, but I got the last two before that one and I heard they weren’t happy about that last one and all three of those internals came back badly for Obama. Sure as hell no 5 point lead. No way. So the PPP is an attempt to change reality. Shift perception so that revision becomes the new reality. Hope I’m making sense to you here. You asked how this stuff works so that’s what I’m trying to give you.
So the Obama team has three bad news internals in Ohio right? What they need then is a public poll to come out favorably for them to shift that reality. Make people think Obama is doing better than he is, and people want to be part of the winning team. That is a fundamental part of politics. There are groups of voters who will vote for the candidate they think is going to win. That may sound crazy, dumb, whatever, but that’s a certain segment of voters. They aren’t bright. They just want to be on the winning team. In a close election, that segment can be the difference between winning and losing for a campaign. So they are panicked about the internals in Ohio and push for the PPP data to come out right after the DNC. Get a positive headline. Change the perception which can then change the reality. Obama up by 5 in Ohio.
But we take that headline and we call the bluff. Rip into the data. Cross reference it. And now we got them by the nuts.
You see, that PP poll was taken from a +4 Democrat sample. Right there the poll is hurting credibility wise. But dig a little deeper. That poll was also +9 for women sampled. That’s a huge gap for Ohio. +9 women polled over men? Cross check that data. You realize in Ohio women make up 51.2% of the population. This PP poll tries to alter that # so that it reflects women make up nearly 60% of Ohio population. Which is way off and totally breaks apart the poll’s credibility. Why would they do that? Because Obama is polling better with women and Romney is polling better for men. So cook the poll right off with a nearly 10 point advantage of women polled. That alone would give Obama another 3-4% advantage in the final approval #s. So you got a +4 Democrat sample. And a heavily lopsided women sample that together accounts for about +8 favoring Barack Obama. So compare that to the headline they used for the poll:
Obama up by 5 in Ohio.
In a polling sample that favored Barack Obama by nearly 10 points, the best he can do is a 5 point advantage. Bluff called. We send back a revised interpretation of the poll with a “Greetings from Ohio” postcard attached.
But there’s more bad news for Obama with this PPP data. In the poll 5% of voters indicated they were still undecided. Pretty big # this late in the game in a state that has been hammered by advertising and political appearances from both campaigns but especially the Obama team. Those undecideds know Barack Obama. If they liked him they would already be indicating plans to vote for him. Campaign 101 is that the undecideds break AWAY from the incumbent and FOR the challenger by about 2 to 1. So with that in mind, there’s another 2 or even 3 point advantage for Romney in Ohio with just the undecideds alone.
You want to know the headline Obama’s own internals are giving them in Ohio? Want to know what the headline would read if it was published by a non-partisan slant?
Romney holds 3 point advantage in Ohio.
Now ad another couple points advantage for the undecideds and the Election Night headline for Ohio is looking like this:
Romney wins Ohio by 5.
We got a long ways to go before we get that headline though. But for now, the reality and not the perception that is being attempted by the media, is looking much better for Romney than it is for Obama.
The debates are going to be huge for us. Both sides know the debates may be the difference on Election Night. And so does the media. And that has me very concerned. The pro Obama spin is going to be huge.
Still want to make time for a sit down. Soon.