The infamous, (and sadly all too accurate in 2012) pollster Nate Silver indicates in a New York Times article that Alaska is making a significant shift away from the Republican Party and toward the Democratic Party. Is this hopeful thinking or based in fact? You decide…
(The liberal horde – coming to a conservative state near you…)
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EXCERPT: (via New York Times)
Alaska: Future Swing State?
The state where President Obama most improved his performance from 2008 was Alaska. He lost it by “only” 14 percentage points this year, considerably less than his 22-point margin of defeat in 2008.
Part of the reason is that the former governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, was on the Republican ticket in 2008 but was not this year. That probably doesn’t explain all of the shift, however.
Consider that in 2000 — also without Ms. Palin on the ballot — the Democratic nominee, Al Gore, lost Alaska by 31 points.
…Alaska’s population is also changing; between 2010 and 2011, Alaska had thethird-highest population growth rate in the country, trailing only Texas and Utah.
Where are those new Alaskans coming from? Many are from liberal states on the West Coast. Between 2005 and 2009, about 4,300 Californians moved to Alaska per year, making it the top state for domestic emigration to Alaska. So did 4,200 residents per year from Washington and 2,200 from Oregon.
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I hate to admit it, but Nate Silver has done some credible work here – and the dangers to conservatives is far greater than “losing” Alaska. There has been for the last ten years or so, a decided shift in the culture of America toward a more liberal-leaning outlook. This shift has certainly been accelerated in the last four years under the presidency of Barack Obama. During a portion of a conversation with RI that was not published, they indicated that much of this shift has actually come from the poor economy – people moving from collapsing liberal state economies into more conservative state economies where job opportunities are greater – but bringing their liberal beliefs with them as well. If a California has a million or so people move into other states seeking work, that shift in population can have a considerable impact on the electorate of that other state. We aren’t even considering the additional impact of illegal immigrants voting.
Fact is, conservative Americans are quickly becoming the political minority in America due to an incompetent Republican Party, an all-in for the Democrats mainstream media, and certainly an radical liberal education system that is now seeing its own efforts pay big dividends in the form of uneducated liberal drone graduates from our schools and universities.
Sorry for the depressing end of week commentary – but Nate Silver is on to something…and it has me worried. -UM
(Sigh…the good old days of 28 years ago…)
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The Man Who Calls Himself Obama VI
Volume Six in the ongoing bestselling series of political insider interviews that rips the deceptive cover off the Obama White House – the radicalized progressive agenda, the infighting among White House staff and other political leaders, and a shocking tale of a young Barack Obama’s behavior during a gathering of Chicago political elites:
“And then the door opened behind me and I turned around and saw a young tall thin black man looking at me. I recognized the face but wasn’t sure of the name right away, but was pretty sure he was someone important. I told him I was just using the bathroom but knew I must have looked very embarrassed. He just stared at me for what seemed like forever. There was just enough light in that hall that I could see that his eyes were not really “right”. I thought he was probably drunk. Then his eyes seemed to suddenly clear up and become a lot more focused and he looked down at me and he gave a big smile. He asked me if I was ok. I looked down to his belt which was undone and I could see that his dress shirt was not tucked into his pants. When I looked back up at his face the smile was long gone. He looked really angry at me now. He asked me again if I was ok but he said it in a way that really spooked me. There was something in his voice that scared me. Really bad. And it was at that exact moment I finally recognized his face as the author and political candidate Barack Obama. “ The Man Who Calls Himself Obama VI
Geez look at that map of the 84 election! What happened to this country to go from that to Obama? Damn. And as far as libs moving into conservative states, seen it here in Texas a lot over the last few years. Drive into Austin. Its like a southern version of San Fran these days. I would wager we have at least a few hundred thousand more hardcore libs in the state just over the last couple of years. At this pace we could be like Alaska by 2012. Ok, now you got me depressed. Thanks a lot buddy!
I live in Austin, and I moved here from California a few years ago. I used to be a Democrat. I voted for Romney. A lot of Californians are leaving California in part because we’re tired of the far left group think. And yes, there are a bunch of mindless Democrats here (particularly on the college campus) but there are also a lot of conservatives and libertarians. Certainly I don’t know any Republican in Austin who is in the closet about it like the conservatives I knew in Los Angeles. And a lot of the weird people in Austin are libertarians.
Huh…well that certainly explains a lot…
So you mean to tell me that liberals don’t know how to effectively run a local economy? Isn’t that hate speech by this point? =p totally joking. Obviously running a national economy is much easier, right?
Thanks for this, UM. Better to be aware and scared than left completely in the dark…
With guns sales soaring, and the mystique of Alaska being hunting and fishing in the wilderness where self-reliant Republican ideals are practiced or you die, I don’t think Alaska is going to fall to the Democrats too soon.
I know this for a fact.
I’m surrounded by moose, wilderness and die-hard Republicans. Serious…. die-hard Republicans.
New York Times is spin.
Not spin – he’s reporting what he’s been told the vote stealing will reflect in the next election.
Can’t the liberal horde be converted to our way of thinking? They had the sense to leave their loser states after all. I know, I know, the stats say different.
But I think Crystal is on to something too.
DUH! How did Colorado go from Red to Blue? Did the people change their minds? NOPE. The people changed. We have had a HUGE influx of morons from both coasts who fled CA and NY and NJ to get away from the insanity, and they brought their stupid ideas with them.
They were idiots when they left California, and they continued to be idiots when they got to Colorado.
The destruction of the California economy is driving Californicators out of the state and they don’t change their philosophies one iota when they get to their destination; they vote for the same crap that destroyed California, New York, Jersey etc
This is a blatant proof that the Republicans are as much enemies to this nation as the dems.
I remember everyday something Ayers said:: After the debacle of the sixties movement, the Reps went to Whashington and the Libs went to Academia.
You want Alaska to remain a red state? As well as Texas? Start by the local school boards, and expand to anything related to academia while the majority is still rep or conservative.
The battle in these states is a the classroom from headstart to PhDs.
If the parents of these children voted with their feet away from libolitics, that means their mind is already open to hear why they felt the way they do. The battle is already half won… but we know the reps are not interested in battling for the other half.
In Alaska they fought teeth and nails to impose Markowsky over Miller for Senate. And guess what Markowsky as been a total RINO, as corrupted as they come.
If you are living in Alaska and like your way of life, better join the school board and get very interested in how schoolbooks and curriculum are selected.
Republicans will moved to where the jobs are that leaves gaps for liberals to escape CA and other places they can’t afford to live and then go about trying to destroy that place too.
Sure we’re out numbered. We’ve been out numbered for a while now. That’s why I agree with those that say lit the training go off the fiscal cliff and let the shit hit the fan for the takers. The Republicans will be okay.
Liberalism is indeed a mental disorder and it seems to be affecting more and more people. No matter how many facts are presented to liberals they will just run away and scream if they can’t handle it. The only cure appears to be death.
A number of historical factors have contributed to America ceasing to be a constitutional Republic. Most Americans — the uneducated — think we’re a democracy when in fact we have devolved into and live in an aristocracy:
“Democracy means government by the uneducated, while aristocracy means government by the badly educated.”
– G.K. Chesterton
I can believe the Alaska move. People, vote for who gives them the bacon.
That’s why they voted for Murkowski over the Tea party candidate, Sarah Palin lost her support, and so forth.
Besides, there are lots of minorities in AK, never forget that.
While I think this is still a ways off, I can see this being plausible, for three reasons:
1. I know a family from rural Alaska. They say that the general consensus is that Palin embarrassed the state and then ran away from her elected office. That perception would create hostility towards the Tea Party and Republicans in general.
2. Alaska is one of those few places where the fringe can break into the mainstream. And quite frankly the Democratic Party has a lot of fringe appeal with its 9/11 trutherism, anti-Zionism, and so on.
3. I’ve heard that Alaska is beginning to see a rapidly growing urban population. Which means more slums, crime, corruption–in a word, Democrat territory.
On the other hand, Nate Silver’s primary claim to fame is being able to agree with the general consensus of polls and pundits while spouting technical terminology to make it appear like the conclusions are his.
In other words, he’s mainly a plagiarizing BS artist.
When it comes to original research, he should be considered a rank amateur.
Two more executive orders:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/12/06/executive-order-establishment-interagency-task-force-commercial-advocacy
and,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/12/07/executive-order-reestablishment-advisory-group
Also, a new memorandum related to purchases of Iranian oil:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/12/07/presidential-memorandum-presidential-determination-pursuant-section-1245
It depends on where in AK they are moving. It’s not like AK is a one-party state by any stretch. Still, it’s a lot easier for fringe candidates to make a name for themselves since there are 3 minor parties that routinely compete with the 2 major ones.
Anchorage has Democratic enclaves because it’s the largest city in AK. The Senator up for re-election this time was the former mayor.
I would say it’s almost inevitable that AK becomes more Democratic, but that’s mostly because Republicans have put up some of the most inept candidates lately. We don’t know how to talk about issues without looking out-of-touch and sounding insane. And then we wonder why people don’t vote for our candidates.
In my county, the Republicans who did their work and were visible got re-elected. The Republicans who assumed that people would vote for them because they were Republican and county-wide offices always go to Republicans and barely campaigned, lost. In a lot of ways, we’ve become complacent. In other ways, we’ve become inept. Either way, we can’t afford to be either.
Remember Miller actually won the vote, but Murkowski ended up taking it through a legal challenge. We can’t be afraid to play the same games when we know that we are right. Remember Allen West at least had the balls to lawyer up and demand a recount – unlike a lot of these guys.
Those kind of tactics matter.
I was really surprised like WHI was when there wasn’t vast numbers of Republicans screaming about voter fraud and lawyering up like West did. If we are going to win in some of these places, that’s what you do. You get into the courts and you force recounts and keep screaming at people until they listen.
I’m so sick of Republicans being Republicans. We are noisy when it doesn’t matter and when it does matter, all you hear is crickets.
Also, a lot of people who immigrate to AK don’t stay very long because the winters are just tough and it is very isolated from the Lower 48.
Just the logistics of getting around and importing things is hard to adapt to. People are more independent up there because they have to be, not everyone adapts well to being in an isolated area.
And if you are used to a bigger city like Dallas or San Francisco, Anchorage is going to be quite a shocker because while it’s the largest city in AK, it’s not a huge town by most people’s standards. Fairbanks is even smaller.
Yes, Anchorage has everything you’d find in any city/suburb in America, but once you get outside of it – there’s a whole lot of nothing! (And most Alaskans like it and want to keep it that way!)
Acting like AK is like the Outside (i.e. the Lower 48) is just stupid because DC is 4 time zones away (a world away). The infrastructure that exists in the Lower 48 isn’t there and unless there’s a reason to stay, most people eventually leave.
The kids’ leave to go to better schools in the Lower 48. Adults leave to find better jobs elsewhere. You have to want to be in Alaska to stay in Alaska.
So, while people might be moving in from CA/WA/OR, I have to wonder why they are going there and in what age group they are in.
Also, the idea that electing a Dem governor ‘could happen’ just shows me how ignorant and bias Silver is because former Governor Tony Knowles already served 2-terms as a Democratic governor in the state of Alaska during the 1990′s into the ’00′s. Then there was Murkowski and Palin. I’m not even going to guess why Silver didn’t bother to google former Alaskan governors and not figure it out. It’s not like AK has been a state that long and there would be a long list of former governors to sift through. (Doh!)
Hope everyone has a good weekend. 8-P
@ UM
Did you know that the reporter you mentioned in “The Man Who Calls Himself Obama VI” was found dead a few years after this sighting even thought she left the Chicago area.
I could be wrong,ebysan, but I think a supposed friend of the ill-fated witness posted that the poor witness/informant had died, having been instructed by the unfortunate witness that upon the event of her death, the friend was to inform Dangerous Weapon UM.
What’s more, the mysterious Mr. Alex Okrent dropped dead July 13th, appoximately the same time our own UM was poisoned.
http://www.westernjournalism.com/who-is-dead-obama-staffer-alex-okrent/