A brief message from our Republican Insider detailing a recent Iowa Caucus survey shows an interesting mix of GOP-hopefuls vying for the 2016 nomination.
(The road for the Clintons to return to the White House has been paved by whatever deal they struck between themselves and the Obama people.)
RI: Hope you’re doing ok. While most people were enjoying the game yesterday I spent the weekend pouring over election/issues-related data and came across the recent poll by Harper that outlined some of the more prominent Republican possibilities for 2016. Now I want to make sure you know that almost all of my energy right now is preparing for 2014, but I am also very concerned that the party lacks a real unifying conservative voice right now, and this kind of data gives a glimpse into the process of how we might be able to make that happen. You said you wanted to further understand how party politics works, and for people like me, this is how it’s done. From the ground up starting with issues connecting to support for a specific potential candidate that might resonate with other voters across party lines across the nation.
So, in case you missed it, here is the Harper poll results of the following possible Republican candidates in the order that they polled:
Among all voters, Rubio came in as the favorite at 27%. This puts him with an almost 10% lead over second in the poll and that was Paul Ryan. That’s a great showing for Rubio if you factor in Paul Ryan’s name recognition coming off the 2012 campaign. My own research shows Rubio playing well among both the Tea Party and social conservatives and his media-friendly personality makes him a potentially formidable candidate. I was also told he’s about 80% certain to run for the nomination.
Now I want to actually jump down to the guy who came in at 4th and that is Rand Paul. He finished 4th overall but among voters aged 18-35 Paul received 24% of the vote. His own name recognition among the younger voters is pretty strong likely tied to former campaigns of his father that resonated so well with that age group. Senator Paul is by far the least favored among the GOP establishment though, which might make early fundraising an issue for him.
The last one I will comment on is Governor Chris Christie. There is word Christie and Romney had a falling out weeks before the 2012 GOP convention when Christie learned he was not being seriously considered for the VP position. Governor Christie had no intention of accepting an offer to run as Romney’s Vice President, but was personally offended that no offer was ever even considered by the Romney camp. Not sure if that explains his odd and very pro-Obama public statements in the days before the election, but it likely explains some of it. Of these five potential Republican candidates, I consider Governor Christie my least favorite, but he has some significant support among some East Coast donors, and some of his operatives are doing a hard push to convince the party his crossover appeal makes him the superior choice. I don’t wish to talk negatively about another Republican but really hope the party does not take a Governor Christie presidential campaign seriously. He has done a more than reasonable job as governor of New Jersey but simply does not offer what conservatives need to push back against the big government globalist jackboots we’ve had to put up with the last five years of Barack Obama.
Oh, and I also want to point out another part of that poll. Currently there are two top potential Democratic Party candidates, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. Clinton has 65% of the support of Democratic voters according to this Harper poll. That means the nomination, at least at this point, is hers if she wants it. The road for the Clintons to return to the White House has been paved by whatever deal they struck between themselves and the Obama people. That part is just my own hunch, but after watching her performance in the Benghazi hearings followed by her nationally televised interview with the president it seemed very clear there was some serious dealing going on between them.
Hoping we can make time for an in person sit down if it works for you. Just let me know.
NOTE: Link to most recent Harper Iowa Caucus poll found HERE